How Likely is Bitcoin to Reach $1 Million in the Next Cycle?

There’s been a lot of talk about Bitcoin’s potential to one day reach $1 million per coin – possibly within the next few years. 

But is that a reasonable assumption? Here are the data points to consider when assessing Bitcoin’s likelihood of reaching seven figures. 

The Halving Cycle

Bitcoin’s monetary issuance schedule is designed to cut the rate of newly issued coins every 210,000 blocks – roughly once every 4 years. These “halvings” are known to be a major catalyst for Bitcoin bull markets, and have thus far unfailingly sent the asset to new all-time highs within two years of their arrival. 

Historically, Bitcoin halving cycles peak within 368 to 550 days after the halving, and bottom within 779 to 914 days. Crypto analyst filbfilb on Twitter uses those tops and bottoms to form a “Bitcoin price curve” from which new cycle tops and bottoms can be roughly approximated. 

Going by the curve, the analyst projects new tops of over $200,000 per coin in 2025, and $500,000 per coin in 2029.